The Red Mile gives us a really interesting Saturday card with a little bit of everything, competitive overnight races early, followed by some serious stakes talent as we get deeper into the program.
There are a few horses that look very difficult to get around, but this is also the kind of card where I don’t want to automatically take the obvious horse at a short price. Lexington can be very trip-dependent, and with young trotters and pacers involved, post position and how the race develops can make a big difference.
Nicholas has identified several strong plays along with a couple of value opportunities that deserve a closer look.
Race 1 — Value Play: #5 Caviart Donovan
5 Caviart Donovan — 7 Muskateer Hanover — 6 Funtime Bayama
Caviart Donovan comes into this off a local Open victory and should be able to sit close to the action while some of the outside speed has to work for position. That’s exactly the type of setup I like when looking for a little value early.
Race 2 — #1 All Sparks
1 All Sparks — 8 Timothy — 7 Gigi’s Star
All Sparks gets the rail after a recent Lexington win and should have every opportunity to work out a favorable trip. Timothy dropping in class makes this one a little more interesting than it may initially appear.
Race 3 — #5 Oliver Blu
5 Oliver Blu — 9 Neck Beads — 10 Yo Bo
Oliver Blu gets some class relief after competing in the Kentucky Sire Stakes. The ability is there, but with young trotters and plenty of outside speed, this isn’t one I’d want to get too aggressive with at a very short price.
Race 4 — #3 Monserrate
3 Monserrate — 6 Mr Mouton — 7 DP Freedoms Chrome
Monserrate was second in a sharp local mile and gets a much more favorable starting position than some of the other major contenders. That should give him a chance to establish position without being used too hard.
Race 5 — #1 Staying At Tony’s
1 Staying At Tony’s — 6 Fletchers Field — 10 Fox Valley Vitali
The rail and the strongest overall rating make Staying At Tony’s the horse to beat here. Several of the others have been inconsistent recently, so the inside draw could prove especially important.
Race 6 — #3 Sunny Station
3 Sunny Station — 2 Topville Lucky — 7 Lyons I Wanna Chip
Sunny Station nearly got the job done in her latest Lexington start after taking control early. If she can dictate the tempo again, she becomes very dangerous.
Race 7 — Best Bet: #1 Treacherous
1 Treacherous — 5 This Kit Rocks — 8 Fourbettor
This is one of Nicholas’s strongest plays on the card. Treacherous comes off a Red Mile victory, draws the rail, and lands in a manageable overnight field. He should have every opportunity to control his own destiny from the inside. rm
Race 8 — Longshot Play: #7 Emmas Mystery Ccl
7 Emmas Mystery Ccl — 4 Busy Miss Lissy S — 9 Sparks
Here’s the price horse. Emmas Mystery Ccl owns the strongest overall rating in the consolation and could offer real value if she rebounds from her latest stakes attempt.
This is exactly the kind of horse I like in a contest — enough underlying ability to win, but potentially overlooked because of the most recent line. rm
Race 9 — Best Bet: #1 Miss Jum Jabber
1 Miss Jum Jabber — 2 Hope Hill — 3 Gonebutnotforgottn
Miss Jum Jabber was dominant in the local Kentucky Sire Stakes final and now gets the rail against a smaller group. She’s going to attract attention at the windows, but there is plenty on the page to justify it.
Race 10 — Best Bet: #1 Beau Jangles
1 Beau Jangles — 8 Sea Bistro Hanover — 7 Ubrute
Beau Jangles has proven repeatedly that he belongs at this level. Add the favorable inside starting position, and he looks like another horse who should be able to put himself in the right spot from the beginning.
Race 11 — Best Bet: #3 Brandon Blvd
3 Brandon Blvd — 4 Sweet Lovin Lou — 6 Funky Buddha
Brandon Blvd defeated Funky Buddha in a fast local final and brings enough tactical speed to establish good position. This looks like another legitimate anchor candidate later on the card. rm
Race 12 — Value Play: #2 Nuance
2 Nuance — 8 Nezuko Kamado S — 11 She’s Moni
This one really gets my attention. Nuance comes into the Filly Futurity off a Grade 1 victory and, just as importantly, draws inside the principal competition.
That combination of current form and post advantage makes her one of the more interesting value opportunities on the card. rm
Race 13 — Value Play: #1 Nix Nacken
1 Nix Nacken — 7 Apex — 9 Big Ranger
Nix Nacken recently defeated Apex in the Canadian Trotting Classic and now gets a major post-position improvement, moving all the way to the rail.
Against this kind of competition, saving ground and controlling position matters. That makes Nix Nacken a very interesting way to finish the card. rm
Nicholas’s Featured Plays
Best Bets:
Race 7 — #1 Treacherous
Race 9 — #1 Miss Jum Jabber
Race 10 — #1 Beau Jangles
Race 11 — #3 Brandon Blvd
Value Plays:
Race 1 — #5 Caviart Donovan
Race 12 — #2 Nuance
Race 13 — #1 Nix Nacken
Longshot:
Race 8 — #7 Emmas Mystery Ccl
There are plenty of recognizable horses on today’s Red Mile card, but I think the more interesting opportunities may come from Caviart Donovan, Emmas Mystery Ccl, Nuance and Nix Nacken rather than simply chasing the shortest prices.
As always, these are advance selections. Check the scratches, watch the board, and pay attention to how the track is playing before locking anything in.
