This is a very good Red Mile card, and I’m looking at it a little differently than simply taking the obvious horses. There are a few races where I’m willing to lean on form and class, but several others where I think the better play is finding a horse that can work out the right trip and give us some value.
The stakes races later on are loaded, so I’m not afraid to take a stand against a favorite if I think the numbers and race shape point somewhere else. My selections are Race 2 through Race 13, and these are the horses I’ll be leaning on the most.
Race 2 — 5-8-1
#5 Odds On UFO (9/2) is my top choice. I like the overall form here, and this looks like a spot where he can be involved early enough to avoid leaving himself too much to do.
Race 3 — 9-5-10
#9 Neck Beads (6/1) gets the nod for me. The Brisnet analysis gives him the best last-race speed rating in the field along with both early-speed and closing recognition, which is a combination I want on my side.
Race 4 — 2-6-5
#2 Jigger DK (8/1) is my play in a pretty salty Open trot. This is the type of race where position and trip will mean everything, and I think he can land in the right spot.
Race 5 — 6-1-2
#6 Fletchers Field (5/2) is where I’m going. He has enough proven ability to compete with this group, and I think the race sets up better for him than it may look at first glance.
Race 6 — 3-2-7
#3 Sunny Station (3/1) is my top pick. I like horses that can put themselves into the race instead of depending on everything breaking perfectly, and she gives me that kind of look here.
Race 7 — 9-2-8
#9 Steel Cowboy (9/2) is my choice in a wide-open race. This feels like one where I want to look beyond the obvious inside horses and take a shot with one that could offer a better price.
Race 8 — 5-4-9
#5 Isabella Bi (6/1) gets my top spot. Brisnet lists her with the best last-race speed rating and as the hard closer in the field, and that makes her very interesting if the pace develops in front of her.
Race 9 — 1-2-4
#1 Miss Jum Jabber (4/5) is difficult for me to get past. She has won 13 of 15 starts, owns a huge class edge on paper, and draws the rail — sometimes you don’t have to overthink it.
Race 10 — 7-8-1
#7 Ubrute (9/2) is my top choice. This is a strong Bluegrass division, but I think he has enough class to sit the right trip and make his presence felt late.
Race 11 — 4-3-6
#4 Sweet Lovin Lou (5/2) is the one I want. He owns the best last-race speed rating in the field and has already been battle-tested against some very good 3-year-olds.
Race 12 — 11-8-6
#11 She’s Moni (7/2) has the second-tier assignment, but I still like her enough to put her on top. Brisnet identifies her as the early-speed horse in the field, and if she can work into position without getting used too hard, she’s dangerous.
Race 13 — 9-7-2
#9 Big Ranger (9/5) is my Kentucky Futurity play. The numbers jump off the page — Brisnet gives him the highest win percentage in the field at 82%, and he’s also identified as the hard closer. In a race this deep, I’ll take that combination.
My Selections:
R2 5-8-1 | R3 9-5-10 | R4 2-6-5 | R5 6-1-2 | R6 3-2-7 | R7 9-2-8 | R8 5-4-9 | R9 1-2-4 | R10 7-8-1 | R11 4-3-6 | R12 11-8-6 | R13 9-7-2
A lot of quality on this card, and I think there are enough vulnerable favorites mixed in to make it interesting. As always, watch the board, watch the trips, and don’t be afraid to take the price when the numbers support it.
