I think this Keeneland card offers some really interesting betting opportunities, especially once we get into the stakes races later in the afternoon. I’m not looking to force plays everywhere, I want horses that give me a combination of form, numbers, and price.

Value Play – Race 1: #3 Noroomformischief – 9/2

Race 1 starts with #3 Noroomformischief at 9-2, who comes off an 87 BRIS speed figure and has won two of her last three starts. That’s all I need to find value over the obvious chalk player pick.

Value Play – Race 8: #1 Pros and Cons – 12-1

At 12-1, Pros and Cons gets my attention in the Jessamine. She’s already 1-for-3 with a second and a third on turf, owns the third-highest Prime Power rating in the field at 140.2, and comes out of stakes company at Saratoga. I think there’s enough ability here to make 12-1 very interesting.

Value Play – Race 10: #8 Kravitz – 10-1

I’m also interested in #8 Kravitz at 10-1 in the finale. He’s by Justify, trained by Graham Motion, has already posted an 87 speed figure, and has experience over the Keeneland turf at this distance. His 139.1 Prime Power tells me he belongs with this group more than that 10-1 morning line might suggest.

Potential Bomb – Race 9: #8 Elewene – 15-1

Here’s one I really like as a potential price horse. Elewene is 15-1 in the Alcibiades, but she has done very little wrong, three starts, two wins and a second, and she owns the second-highest Prime Power rating in the field at 132.6. Last time out she won by 7¾ lengths while putting up an 88 speed figure with 92 E1 / 94 E2 pace numbers. That does not look like a typical 15-1 horse to me.

Bigger Bomb – Race 7: #9 Jack’s Promise – 30-1

If I’m looking for one true bomb, #9 Jack’s Promise at 30-1 is intriguing in the Phoenix. He has six career wins, has already run a 98 speed figure, is 3-for-6 at six furlongs, and even owns a win over Keeneland. This is obviously a much tougher Grade 2 field, but at 30-1 I don’t need perfection, I need a horse who has enough back class and speed to outrun that price.

My price horses:
R8 – #1 Pros and Cons (12-1)
R10 – #8 Kravitz (10-1)
R9 – #8 Elewene (15-1) – Bomb Watch
R7 – #9 Jack’s Promise (30-1) – Big Bomb Watch

Join the Action

Those are the horses I’ll be watching most closely for value today. Get your picks in, play along with us at HC, and let’s see who can crack the Top 10. Share your best play, your longshot, or a horse you think I’m overlooking, that’s what makes the day more fun.

Good luck today, and I’ll see you at the races!